If they are independent, then there should be a log-probability of it not happening per year though, right? Like, if the chance for each year is the same and they are independent, then the log of the probability that it doesn’t happen in a given year, If you multiply that that by the number of years, that will give the log of the probability that it doesn’t happen in any of the years. This seems like it could serve many of the purposes that people are intuitively looking for when they think of “probability per year”. And if the different years aren’t independent, uh, maybe some terms could be added to adjust for that?