I was being too indirect. Your framework doesn't have predictive value. 'This person had an extremely favorable outcome, therefore they are elite' is a retrospective judgment, it can't be used to form a hypothesis. It is unfalsifiable.

Whether someone is Scottish, or any "easy to measure" fact, has nothing to do with the No True Scotsman fallacy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsifiability https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_true_Scotsman