Tad concerned about this, although I’m not sure it impacts commodities. If / When that occurs I think we may run into major issues.
1. The only reason the dollar is the world currency is we effectively force commodity exchanges in that currency
2. Russia is a large resource exporter (one of the largest and largest energy exporter to EU). Iran is a massive exporter. And China is the largest consumer.
3. Russia and China can now dictate how they conduct transactions. They’ll say gold, Bitcoin, Ruble w.e.
4. That’ll cause dollar to drop like a rock in value. As suddenly no one will need trillions in dollars any more to do transactions.
5. Separately, Russia said they’d view any sanction as an act of war. Which could result in a massive escalation.
6 Russia has been preparing for this. Switched to conduct trade with China, has EU by the balls in winter via energy and has a massive gold reserve
That’s actually my point in part, Russia can now dictate terms. Russia can sell fuel to China / through China if the EU doesn’t play ball.
Similarly, China can also change what they want to accept. It would be relatively easy at this point (though painful) to force the EU to adopt w.e. The joint Russia-China partnership desire.
Does China particularly _want_ enormous amounts of additional natural gas, though? Even if Russia could get it there; I don't think there's a cross-continental pipeline at the moment?
>4. That’ll cause dollar to drop like a rock in value. As suddenly no one will need trillions in dollars any more to do transactions.
I don't understand this logic. If you're selling oil for USD, you're not forced to hold on to the USD. You can sell the USD for any other currency. If that's the case there shouldn't really be any difference either way.
The worst of winter seems to have already passed. Also, it’s bold to assume China will align themselves with an economically and morally dead Russia. Even China knows you’re not supposed to get caught killing innocent civilians on video.
1. The only reason the dollar is the world currency is we effectively force commodity exchanges in that currency
2. Russia is a large resource exporter (one of the largest and largest energy exporter to EU). Iran is a massive exporter. And China is the largest consumer.
3. Russia and China can now dictate how they conduct transactions. They’ll say gold, Bitcoin, Ruble w.e.
4. That’ll cause dollar to drop like a rock in value. As suddenly no one will need trillions in dollars any more to do transactions.
5. Separately, Russia said they’d view any sanction as an act of war. Which could result in a massive escalation.
6 Russia has been preparing for this. Switched to conduct trade with China, has EU by the balls in winter via energy and has a massive gold reserve