I'd really like to keep both webs, but the reality is that everyone trying to monetize wants an app, and failing that a webapp that is a complete black box. So that is probably the way it will go. I like document only websites for conveying information. Know a lot about X and want to share your knowledge? Make a document. I can see room for some partial interactivity for hands on tutorials, like notebooks. But I don't really want any interactivity on my news sites, sadly they will head for the blackbox model first for the money. For a payment portal, a banking app, a multiplayer videogame, probably even a web ide or chat client, I don't want any document like behavior, I just want an app, and if it can be sandboxed in my browser, all the better.
Ideally I want security sensitive apps to turn into blackbox webapps. I want most everything else to be pure html+css. With interactivity there when you really need it to convey your meaning or to generate documents more quickly.
In reality, I think your nightmare scenario is far more likely. It just makes serving ads so much easier. And they still will keep making native apps for things that should be websites (which is my nightmare) because that makes it even easier to get valuable data.
Ideally I want security sensitive apps to turn into blackbox webapps. I want most everything else to be pure html+css. With interactivity there when you really need it to convey your meaning or to generate documents more quickly.
In reality, I think your nightmare scenario is far more likely. It just makes serving ads so much easier. And they still will keep making native apps for things that should be websites (which is my nightmare) because that makes it even easier to get valuable data.