Is it just a hunch you have? Why specifically 2020? No snark, just wondering if you've read something that indicates they're coming sooner than later. I mean, I want my driverless car in my lifetime :)
The technology is already available, and merely allowing it would have enormous savings in time and money for virtually everyone who isn't being paid to drive. Further, the savings can be captured by the person making the decision to put it on, so as soon as it's allowed, I expect to see widespread adoption, retrofitting, etc.
Again, as soon as the statistics come in about accidents with driverless systems, I expect a push for mandating that all ordinary vehicles have them, because putting them on every car would likely save almost 30K lives a year in the US alone: http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx . Interesting sidenote: why did vehicular deaths decline by 25% between 2007 and 2009, without any real decrease in miles traveled? Odd.
Interesting sidenote: why did vehicular deaths decline by 25% between 2007 and 2009, without any real decrease in miles traveled? Odd.
My hypotheses:
Older, less-safe cars are breaking down and getting off the road. Newer cars are better able to handle higher speeds and collision avoidance maneuvers. Safety features previously found only in luxury cars are becoming available in lower-end models.
Many roads were widened and/or improved as part of the economic stimulus. More lanes and wider shoulders means more room to dodge a potential accident.
Maybe the weather has been more mild on particularly dangerous roads.
I think it is almost entirely that cars are more safe nowadays than they used to be. And I expect it has less to do with "collision avoidance maneuvers", and more to do with better design and crumple zones, and a significant focus on crash test ratings. There are probably as many accidents as ever, it's just that less of them are fatal.
But my original question was (expanded for clarity): "Why was there a sharp drop from 2007 to 2009 after many years of very gradual decrease or even flatness? Your answer could explain a steady drop as safety features become more widespread, but that didn't happen from 1995 to 2005, even though presumably people bought new cars during this time.
consumer cars being sold today already partially drive themselves (can stop for you, swerve to avoid debris, parallel park). Autonomous cars have been under test for decades and google has already solved the problem of creating a car that can drive itself safely in traffic.
Everything I've been hearing indicates they are coming sooner than later, and that it's a revolution not many people are that aware of.
