Don't we likewise have predictions about FLOPs, compute, algorithms etc etc that are grounded in theoretical frameworks, and every year or so we make predictions and make experiments to confirm or deny AI capability predictions?
The AI and neuroscience literature likewise describe the composition of intelligence and what it takes to build it.
What would you need to see to believe we have enough evidence that runaway AI is possible, even if it is highly unlikely any time soon? (Worth adding here I don't know exactly what you mean by runaway AI other than simply AI humanity as a whole loses control over). I'm asking what it would take for you to go from 0% possible to 5% possible.
Last time I checked science fiction authors in the atomic age making fanciful speculation on the properties of imaginary systems weren't responsible for actually building said systems. Though naturally, there will be exceptions.
Nonetheless, I still have a hard time dismissing Geoffrey Hinton's concerns as fanciful sci-fi.
Likewise, a nuclear world war actually wouldn't be as bad or even civilization-ending as fanciful sci-fi authors make it out to be. But dismissing its risks entirely because there are some nuclear-war forums where people come up with weird radiation thought experiments just seems preemptive to me.
The AI and neuroscience literature likewise describe the composition of intelligence and what it takes to build it.
What would you need to see to believe we have enough evidence that runaway AI is possible, even if it is highly unlikely any time soon? (Worth adding here I don't know exactly what you mean by runaway AI other than simply AI humanity as a whole loses control over). I'm asking what it would take for you to go from 0% possible to 5% possible.
Last time I checked science fiction authors in the atomic age making fanciful speculation on the properties of imaginary systems weren't responsible for actually building said systems. Though naturally, there will be exceptions. Nonetheless, I still have a hard time dismissing Geoffrey Hinton's concerns as fanciful sci-fi.
Likewise, a nuclear world war actually wouldn't be as bad or even civilization-ending as fanciful sci-fi authors make it out to be. But dismissing its risks entirely because there are some nuclear-war forums where people come up with weird radiation thought experiments just seems preemptive to me.