Reality is that knowing LLM and other AI tech now is going to be a long term distinct advantage for software engineers of all stripes and those that don’t know will fall behind
To me that does not sound like a "reality", but a hypothesis that many are willing to bet on today.
It may turn out to be true, but I don't see any proof of that yet, not even in the social sciences-style of proof (which is admittedly a lower bar to clear than mathematical-style proofs, but that would do for now).
I share your skepticism about AI tools being effective. However, when we look at it from a labor relations perspective, what's important is the threat of being replaced, and that's happening now. I think the threat itself is (currently) far more damaging to workers' psychological safety (thus team performance) than whatever outcomes using AI (currently) actually brings.
My point is that we're already beyond the "fuck around" threshold; your point (if I understand you correctly) is that we haven't reached the "find out" threshold yet. :)
